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| - Psychohistory is the name of a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe, which combined history, psychology and mathematical statistics to create a (nearly) exact science of the behavior of very large populations of people, such as the Galactic Empire. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: in a gas, the motion of a single molecule is very difficult to predict, but the mass action of the gas can be predicted to a high level of accuracy. Asimov applied this concept to the population of the fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered in the quadrillions.
- In the 21st century, a science studying the actions of very large groups of people might be developed. It was described in the fiction of Isaac Asimov, who called it Psychohistory. Asimov described it with this analogy: in a gas, while the motion of a single molecule is very difficult to predict, the mass action of the gas can be predicted to a high level of accuracy. Such science might arise from a combination of history, sociology, mathematical statistics, behavioural economics, psychology and other fields. An attempt to create psychohistory was Karl Marx's historical materialism.
- Psychohistory was a scientific field known by various races in the galaxy. It was a study of both psychology and sociology, which attempted to predict future events based on past actions. This allowed a psychohistorian to identify key decision points and individuals that will make those decisions. Due to the nature of the study, it was incapable of charting a single individual's actions but rather required a large galactic population in order for it to be effective. The Seldon Institute of Psychohistory was an organization within the United Federation of Planets. (TOS novel: Preserver)
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| abstract
| - Psychohistory is the name of a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe, which combined history, psychology and mathematical statistics to create a (nearly) exact science of the behavior of very large populations of people, such as the Galactic Empire. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: in a gas, the motion of a single molecule is very difficult to predict, but the mass action of the gas can be predicted to a high level of accuracy. Asimov applied this concept to the population of the fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered in the quadrillions. Later on in his career, Asimov described historical (pre-Seldon) origins of psychohistory. In The Robots of Dawn, which takes place thousands of years before Foundation, he describes roboticist Han Fastolfe's attempts to create the science based on careful observation of others, particularly his daughter Vasilia. In Prelude to Foundation we learn that it was in fact one of Fastolfe's robots, R. Daneel Olivaw, that manipulated Seldon into practical application of this science.
- Psychohistory was a scientific field known by various races in the galaxy. It was a study of both psychology and sociology, which attempted to predict future events based on past actions. This allowed a psychohistorian to identify key decision points and individuals that will make those decisions. Due to the nature of the study, it was incapable of charting a single individual's actions but rather required a large galactic population in order for it to be effective. The Seldon Institute of Psychohistory was an organization within the United Federation of Planets. (TOS novel: Preserver) The concept of psychohistory was originated by Isaac Asimov in his Foundation stories and novels.
- In the 21st century, a science studying the actions of very large groups of people might be developed. It was described in the fiction of Isaac Asimov, who called it Psychohistory. Asimov described it with this analogy: in a gas, while the motion of a single molecule is very difficult to predict, the mass action of the gas can be predicted to a high level of accuracy. Such science might arise from a combination of history, sociology, mathematical statistics, behavioural economics, psychology and other fields. An attempt to create psychohistory was Karl Marx's historical materialism. If this science is be developed before the Technological singularity, it could help those who have access to it to directly influence course of humanity's future. Accepting this possibility significantly complicates our ability to predict events before the Singularity, or to influence them. It's like trying to plot a strategy in a game of chess when there is a rule that one of the players becomes able to read the mind of his opponent once there are 20 pieces left on the board.
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